SK Hynix Q3 2026 Earnings Analysis: HBM4 Outlook and Brokerage Price Targets

SK Hynix announced record-high results for Q3 2026. Revenue of KRW 104.6155 trillion and operating profit of KRW 83.3338 trillionpushed quarterly revenue above KRW 100 trillion.

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What stands out is that the operating margin reached 80%. Expanded AI investment, rising HBM demand, and higher server DRAM prices all contributed to improved results.

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On October 28, 2026, the share price rose to KRW 1.51 million intraday, and brokerages have expressed positive views on the company's medium- to long-term growth prospects.

However, with the share price already having risen sharply, the key question is whether future earnings growth can meet the market's high expectations.

Results showed strong growth both quarter over quarter and year over year.

Compared with the previous quarter, revenue rose about 32% and operating profit rose 38%. Year-over-year growth was 328% for revenue and 632% for operating profit.

Net income fell from the previous quarter, while operating profit rose sharply. Since net income and operating profit are different measures—with net income also reflecting items such as investment-related gains and losses—it is useful to consider them separately.

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Three key drivers supported these results.

• Expanded HBM4 supply: Higher sales of next-generation, high-value memory for AI accelerators

• Growth in server DDR5: Increased demand as data center investment expands

• Expanded enterprise eSSD sales: Growth in high-capacity storage based on 321-layer NAND

Net cash increased to KRW 98.7 trillion at the end of Q3, improving financial flexibility.

A key factor for future earnings is the expansion of HBM4 supply and sales.

According to the company's outlook, HBM4 is expected to surpass HBM3E in both shipments and revenue starting in Q4 2026. In line with this, the company plans to expand production capacity at Cheongju M15X to its maximum level by year-end.

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Also, the company has secured long-term contracts covering more than 50% of its production capacity for 2027–2028. This is positive because it makes long-term demand easier to assess and can partly reduce the risk from price fluctuations.

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Several conditions need to be met for the share price to rise further.

First, AI semiconductor customers such as NVIDIA need to continue increasing investment.

Second, the company needs to maintain the profitability of high-value products even as HBM competition with Samsung Electronics and Micron intensifies.

Third, the upward trend in standard DRAM and NAND prices must continue.

Ultimately, a key factor for the share price is whether the company can maintain its competitiveness in the HBM market while sustaining the rise in commodity memory prices.

A compilation of brokerage reports published through October 28, 2026, shows price targets reflecting high expectations for SK Hynix's growth.

Price targets vary considerably across brokerages because they use different assumptions about HBM market growth, memory price outlooks, and fair corporate valuations.

Based on the October 28 closing price of about KRW 1.5 million, a KRW 3 million price target is about twice the current price.

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However, a price target is not a guaranteed future price. If the share price has risen sharply recently, it is more important to look beyond the target itself and check whether earnings forecasts continue to be revised upward and how much of the market's expectations are already reflected in the current price.

SK Hynix is shifting its business focus beyond memory, a sector sensitive to economic cycles, toward becoming a key supplier for AI infrastructure.

Its Q3 2026 results show how this business transformation is being reflected in earnings.

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The shareholder-return plan announced by the company could also affect the share price. Its plan to pursue about KRW 100 trillion in annual shareholder returns may positively affect per-share value, but the actual impact should be considered alongside how the plan is implemented and the earnings trend.

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When making an investment decision, you can consider the following three scenarios separately.

When assessing the current investment appeal, it is important not to focus only on the scale of operating profit, but also to consider whether earnings and high profitability can be maintained in 2027.

Rather than rushing to buy after a sharp rise, new investors may want to take a cautious approach and monitor institutional and foreign investor flows after the earnings announcement, along with the pace of HBM4 supply expansion. Share prices may move differently than expected, so consider your investment horizon and risk tolerance as well.

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