Busan Real Estate Outlook for Q4 2026: Apartment Prices, Unsold Homes, and Local Market Analysis

As Busan’s real estate market enters Q4 2026, a polarized trend is continuing, with signs of price recovery in popular areas coinciding with the burden of unsold homes on the outskirts.

In highly sought-after areas such as Haeundae-gu and Dongnae-gu, buyers are showing interest, particularly in newly built apartments. Meanwhile, price adjustments continue in areas with heavy supply burdens, such as Gangseo-gu.

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According to Korea Real Estate Board monthly statistics for September 2026, Busan apartment sale prices fell 0.07%from the previous month. This differs from the national apartment price increase of 0.35% and Seoul’s increase of 0.74%.

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Therefore, it is difficult to conclude that Busan as a whole has entered a full-fledged upswing.

However, given the diverging price trends across districts, the Q4 outlook should consider local supply and demand rather than just whether prices are rising or falling.

Although Busan apartment prices were generally weak in September 2026, some areas with strong residential appeal saw an upward trend.

One notable point is the 0.73-percentage-point gap in monthly changes between Haeundae-gu and Gangseo-gu.

In Haeundae-gu, newly built apartments and well-located complexes in popular residential areas such as U-dong, Jung-dong, and Jaesong-dong are supporting the market.

Dongnae-gu is also showing a relatively stable trend, supported by its school districts, lifestyle amenities, and steady demand from owner-occupiers.

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In contrast, competition between new housing supply—including in Myeongji International New Town and Eco Delta City—and existing complexes is a key factor in Gangseo-gu.

A private estimate based on actual transaction prices has also indicated that Busan apartment prices rose by about 2% over the past 3 months. However, the mix of homes sold and calculation methods may differ, making a direct comparison with Korea Real Estate Board price indices difficult.

In Busan, this can be viewed as a market phase in which the competitiveness of individual districts and complexes has a greater influence on prices than the citywide trend.

Unsold apartments remain a risk factor that warrants close attention when assessing Busan’s real estate market.

According to an estimate citing Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport statistics, the number of unsold homes in Busan in July 2026 was 8,379 units, up 308 units from the previous month.

Particular attention should be paid to unsold homes after completion. This refers to homes that remain unsold even after construction is complete, and they can place a greater burden on builders and the local housing market than general unsold inventory.

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In January 2026, Busan had 3,249 completed but unsold homes, a 25.3% increase from 2,593 the previous month. This figure shows that the unsold-home issue early in the year involved not only the volume of unsold inventory, but also an increase in homes that remained unsold after completion.

However, the January figure for completed but unsold homes should not be taken as representing the current situation in Q4.

There were 69,134 unsold homes nationwide in August 2026, including 28,080 completed but unsold homes.

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Gangseo-gu’s supply burden is particularly noticeable in Busan. Gangseo-gu was designated an unsold-home management area in September 2026, with the designation then in effect from September 10 to October 9.

If unsold homes remain on the market for a long time, this may lead to discounted sales, increased financing costs, or delays to new projects.

Therefore, it is important to look not only at the total number of unsold homes, but also at whether completed but unsold homes are declining and the actual contract rates for newly launched developments.

In Busan’s apartment market in Q4 2026, investment decisions should be tailored to local conditions.

Areas with strong established residential appeal, such as Haeundae, Suyeong, and Dongnae, are relatively likely to maintain their locational competitiveness even when new supply comes onto the market.

Gangseo-gu has long-term growth potential from the development of Eco Delta City, but its supply of homes for move-in and unsold-home burden should also be considered in the short term.

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It is difficult to assess redevelopment and reconstruction based on expectations alone. Future value anticipated from urban renewal projects, actual project timelines, additional contributions, and prices of homes offered for general sale should each be examined.

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Going forward in Busan, price gaps between new and older homes, areas near and far from subway stations, and areas with limited versus concentrated supplymay become more pronounced.

For the remainder of 2026, the Q4 Busan real estate market can be expected to remain broadly flat, with a selective recovery limited to some key areasas the base scenario.

If rising transaction volumes, falling unsold inventory, and rising lease prices occur together, they could support the possibility of an upswing. Conversely, if completed but unsold homes increase or discounted sales expand, price adjustments in outlying areas could continue for longer.

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Consider the following three indicators when assessing market trends.

1. Unsold homes and completed but unsold homes: Check whether the supply of new homes is being absorbed by actual demand.

2. Apartment transaction volumes and price indices: See whether the recovery is spreading across the market rather than being limited to a few high-priced transactions.

3. Lease prices and move-in supply: These can help assess owner-occupier demand and the medium- to long-term trend in sale prices.

It seems unlikely that the entire Busan market will shift to a broad-based upswing like those seen in the past.

However, the possibility of a price rebound may increase in areas where unsold inventory is being cleared and transactions are recovering.

Therefore, the key to investing in Busan real estate in Q4 2026 is to select complexes with relatively low supply burdens and support from actual demand, rather than trying to time the market bottom citywide.

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