Table of Contents
- Middle East Crisis Entering a New Phase
- Iran's Retaliation Cards: What Remains?
- 'Economic Nuclear Option': Reevaluation of the Possibility of Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
- China's Dilemma and the Direction of International Oil Prices
- Summary and Personal Investment Outlook
- Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Middle East Crisis Entering a New Phase
On June 22, 2025, the U.S. carried out an independent airstrike on Iran's major nuclear facilities, resulting in a drastic shift in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The conflict between Israel and Iran had already intensified, and it has now escalated to a direct clash between the U.S. and Iran.
In this military operation, the U.S. precisely targeted key components of Iran's nuclear program, such as Fordow and Natanz. President Trump officially announced that the goal of this operation was to "completely eliminate" Iran's nuclear weapons development capabilities. This change is expected to have a significant impact on the political dynamics in the Middle East in the future.
This incident is regarded as crossing the 'red line' that the Iranian government had been avoiding. How Iran will respond in the future, and the impact of this situation on international oil prices and the global economy, have drawn worldwide attention. Many changes are expected depending on how the situation unfolds.
Iran's Retaliation Cards: What Remains?
Due to aerial strikes from Israel and direct attacks from the United States, Iran's military capability has significantly weakened. In particular, the removal of many key commanders from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force has made it very difficult for Iran to conduct unified military operations.
Given the current situation, Iran's options for retaliation are limited. It is important to pay attention to how Iran's military response will develop in the future.
Firstly, Iran's missile launches are a traditional method of responding to Israel. However, currently about one-third of Iran's ballistic missile launchers have been destroyed, and many missiles have been expended, so the effectiveness of such responses is expected to be limited. Considering Israel's strong multi-layered air defense systems, an Iranian attack might reveal Iran's military weaknesses rather than causing significant damage.
Secondly, Iran may also target U.S. military bases in the region. This could inflict direct damage on the U.S. and could provide a significant strategic advantage, but it also carries a high risk of triggering a large-scale military retaliation from the U.S. Such a choice would become an extreme gamble that the Iranian leadership could contemplate only if they feel their regime's survival is threatened.
Considering these factors comprehensively, Iran's military strategy entails very complex and risky choices.
The most efficient and powerful means of retaliation is cyberattacks. Iran has been continuously developing hacking groups at the national level to compensate for its traditional military deficiencies. These groups could create large-scale disruptions targeting the financial systems, power grids, and water supply facilities of the United States and Israel. This approach presents a relatively lower risk of military conflict while delivering severe psychological and social blows to the adversary, serving as an asymmetrical response strategy.
Thus, cyberattacks play a crucial role in modern warfare and are creating new dynamics in conflicts between states.
'Economic Nuclear Option': Reevaluation of the Possibility of Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
Historically, blocking the Strait of Hormuz has been regarded as an 'economic suicide' leading to economically catastrophic results. This was considered an irrational choice; however, in light of the current situation where the Iranian regime faces serious threats due to the direct attack on U.S. nuclear facilities, this perspective appears outdated. When facing the risk of regime collapse, survival instincts take precedence over economic rationality.
Iran possesses methods to effectively blockade the Strait of Hormuz without engaging in full-scale hostilities with the U.S. By deploying mines or attacking a few oil tankers, they can create 'unacceptable risks' for commercial shipping. Iran's asymmetric naval capabilities, including mines, fast boats, and anti-ship missiles, have largely remained intact despite Israeli air strikes.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has thus emerged as a significant strategic retaliation option for Iran. With a weakening U.S. missile deterrent and diminishing power of proxy forces, Iran's maritime strategy appears increasingly feasible. This situation could exacerbate instability in the Middle East and raise concerns in the international community.
Ultimately, Iran's maritime strategy has become a complex issue that extends beyond mere military threats, considering its potential implications for both the regional and global economies.
China's Dilemma and the Direction of International Oil Prices
In the current crisis situation, China's role is very complex. To counter U.S. hegemony, China has established a strategic partnership with Iran, but simultaneously imports more than 40% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran blocks the Strait, it poses a significant threat not only to the U.S. but also to China's energy security.
Thus, China will outwardly condemn U.S. military actions and express support for Iran, but in reality, it will strive for de-escalation to protect its own economic interests. Nevertheless, should Iran attempt to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices could sharply rise.
Thus, despite China's diplomatic efforts, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to have serious implications for the international economy.
Experts predict that oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel and, in the worst-case scenario, rise as high as $200. This situation poses risks that may lead to serious recessions in the global economy.
Summary and Personal Investment Outlook
Ultimately, the U.S. airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities has deepened the crisis in the Middle East. While Iran has suffered significant losses in its military command structure and traditional military power, it still retains powerful asymmetric combat options such as cyberattacks and the capacity to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. With the survival of the regime becoming the top priority, the likelihood of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has significantly increased, which could lead to unpredictable surges in international oil prices (WTI).
Following the recent military tensions between Iran and Israel, I believed that the likelihood of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was low and that any increase in oil prices would be limited. Thus, I have been continuously purchasing WTI double inverse products. However, with the sudden shift in circumstances due to U.S. military intervention, it is now time to closely monitor how the outcomes of this investment will develop.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q. What is the background and objective of the U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities?
In 2025, the U.S. independently attacked major nuclear facilities to completely eliminate Iran's nuclear weapons development capabilities.
On June 22, 2025, the U.S. precisely targeted key elements of Iran's nuclear program, such as Fordow and Natanz. At that time, President Trump officially announced that the objective was to 'completely eliminate' Iran's nuclear weapons development capabilities. This military operation caused a direct conflict between Iran and the U.S. and significantly altered the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
Q. What military response options does Iran have against the attacks from the U.S. and Israel?
Iran has various response options, including limited missile capabilities, targeting U.S. military bases in the region, and cyberattacks.
About one-third of Iran's ballistic missile launchers have been destroyed, limiting the effectiveness of missile attacks. Attacking U.S. military bases in the region could yield strategic benefits, but the risk of U.S. retaliation is substantial. The most effective means of retaliation would be cyberattacks that could create extensive chaos targeting the critical infrastructure of the U.S. and Israel. Thus, Iran's military response entails complex and risky decisions.
Q. How do you evaluate the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz and its economic impact?
Iran is likely to exercise its economic nuclear option through the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to surges in international oil prices.
Historically, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been described as an act of suicide, but in the current crisis faced by the Iranian regime, survival instincts will take precedence. Iran could attempt to blockade the Strait using asymmetric powers, such as laying mines and attacking oil tankers. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital passage for global oil, and its blockage would lead to rapid increases in international oil prices, posing a serious threat to energy security for major countries, especially China.
Q. What interests and roles does China have in the current Middle East crisis?
China maintains a strategic partnership with Iran and is working towards de-escalation to secure energy security.
China cooperates with Iran to counter U.S. hegemony, but since it imports over 40% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a blockade would threaten its economy significantly. While publicly supporting Iran and condemning the U.S., it is effectively striving to ease tensions in the Middle East to protect its economic interests. Nonetheless, as the possibility of a blockade increases, surging international oil prices become inevitable.
Q. What effects does the Middle East crisis have on international oil prices and investors?
The Middle East crisis leads to rising oil prices and increased investment uncertainty, necessitating caution for inverse double inverse investments.
Experts warn that oil prices could rise from $100 per barrel to as high as $200, which could act as a factor leading to global economic recession. Following the U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, the situation has changed rapidly, increasing uncertainty about the effectiveness of existing investment strategies such as WTI double inverse products. Investors are required to closely monitor Middle Eastern geopolitical risks and oil price volatility and respond with caution.
